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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Stopped out of AMRI. Stopped out of CS. Two new entries.

This will be a short update post.


The above image is able to be clicked in case it's too hard to see.

Basically, I got stopped out of AMRI. It didn't really follow the inverse head and shoulders breakout pattern that I wanted it to. No big deal. Stop level at 14.50, took a relatively shallow loss of around 300 basis points. This wasn't a big position in the first place anyways.


Credit Suisse wasn't moving up enough in terms of momentum for my liking. I set a 200 basis point trailing stop at around 15.40, and it got hit. Walked away with around an 11% gain, if I remember correctly. Pretty good.

Opened up two more positions.

BCS, Barclays PLC. I'm hoping that its situation ends up in a way similar to Credit Suisse's.



Also, Stratasys. Hoping for a cup and handle.


Both positions have trailing stops, since I'm going mostly off of the chart.

Still in SPY and XLP.

Sunday, March 6, 2016

3/6/2016 Update

Apologize in advance again. I've made some trades and have failed to document their occurrence on the time of their happening.

I have been churning out some more articles on Seeking Alpha, but my post frequency here might lead many to believe that I have been not doing anything with my personal portfolio, which is simply not true.

Let's get caught up.

It's been about two weeks since I've reallocated and moved my positions into what they are currently. I entered all three of them on the 22nd of February. 

I have ~1/3 of my portfolio in SPY.


Feeling pretty good about it. I'm sitting on around a 3% gain on that. I noticed that the Fear and Greed Index during the time was relatively low, there was a bit of weakness that showed at the time, and I am generally quite the skeptic when it came to the market pundits worrying about recession and a downfall in the economy.

It has recently shot up in quite a short time. The Full Stochastics is at an overbought level, the RSI is nearing the overbought level. However, I do like the fast increase in the MACD; I think it will reach Nov levels after a while. It has also shot past its 50 day moving average, which is a good sign for its regaining of positive momentum.

I'm also sitting on a third of XLP, which is a SPDR consumer staples ETF.


Now, this is following the same pattern as SPY, and I am sitting on around a 4% gain on that. The reasons why I bought this are detailed in my Seeking Alpha article, where I went over why I thought Consumer Staple ETFS were attractive. 

Also not mentioned in the article, however, is that I want this portfolio to be not deviate too far from the S&P 500 this year. So currently, I have funds dedicated to an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, another set of funds for an ETF that tracks a section of the S&P 500 which I think will perform better than the overall index, as well as the last set of funds set towards individual stocks. I'll probably keep this up for a while. I want to play it conservatively and relatively simply.

(Disclaimer: I said that I was not holding XLP at the time of the publication of the article. More specifically said in the details of the agreement of publication: I was not allowed to purchase stocks I had written about within 72 hours of its publication if I said I did not own the investments I was talking about. I published that article on the 16th of February, and I entered this position on the 22nd of February.)


My best going trade right now is Credit Suisse. I'm sitting on around a 17% gain on that. I saw that it reached a second support level of consolidation, as well as a new low. After the support seemed to steady after its earnings release, and the MACD was set to converge in a bullish manner, I wanted to pull the trigger on it. Basically my thought process is that it is too big to fail, and that it has gotten recently really out of favor. It should heal over the coming year or so. Best outcome is that it'll end up like HPQ during 2012. However, I have no hesitation to lock in my profits if this thing goes really south. I'll probably cut some of the position anyways, as I found another trade I would like to open.

(Click to enlarge)


I've found a new trade in AMRI. I'll probably sell some of the SPY position and the CS position to get it in, but the reasons for why are detailed above.

Don't want to read it? The summary is that it has recently broke out of its channel in a positive manner, is about to develop a positive inverse head and shoulders pattern, and the moving averages are converging to show a trend reversal. The lower indicators haven't really shown me much, so I'm going mostly off of chart patterns and movement.

Of course, this is a trade based on technicals alone, so I'll have to set some support levels as an objective way to tell myself when the trade has gone south. 15.00 is the first support level I'll expect if it goes down and 14.75 is where I'll cut the position. Sadly, I have to be in school so I can't monitor the trade, so I might do a trailing stop, but this is still going to be a 2 week trade at least, so that likely won't be necessary. I'm hoping to see a positive trend develop.

That's everything for now. Again, classes are hard as usual, so it's hard for me to do this as much as I would like.

Kevin

 

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