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Saturday, February 28, 2015

Change in Plans

I've amassed a reputation to my peers as someone who absolutely hates being wrong, on just about anything. A test, a choice, a game, you name it, I hate being making mistakes with them. I hate everything about it. I hate admitting it, I hate realizing it, the entire experience just sucks. And it's not like being wrong is the worst part of it; the fact that I could have been right, by doing one other simple little thing differently, makes the experience that much worse.

I've been pretty pissed with the situation that I had to deal with when Noodles and Company came up short on its earnings report. The share price plummeted. It wiped out all my gains leading up to that day.

So obviously, I was pretty stunned and frustrated with what happened. However, I believed (and still do) that the long term prospects of the company were going to be positive. At some point or another, this company would catch fire and rally higher. It has a solid backbone and an incredibly lucrative product offering. In a time where the average consumer is becoming more health aware, albeit still looking for a fast food offering, this company will be positioned strong into the future.

With its earnings growth projections and financial situation, I would not be surprised if this stock grows considerably in value in the future.

My problem with owning this stock is, however, that right now in the short term, absolutely nothing is going its way. It is struggling to gain a positive ground in price action, and the drop off in price looms over the possible gains that may come up in the short term.

In terms of the stock's health, the drop off in price caused moving averages exhibit a bearish pattern in which the 50 day moving average crossed down below the 200 day moving average, the lack of buying support to raise the stock back is significant, and it does not help at all with how the recent consumer confidence reports for this month are declining.

And if I hold on because I were to consider this stock being over-emotionally undervalued due to general market fluctuation, I can't really justify this being a value play, because the stock is still trading at around a 49x PE and a 28x Forward PE. It's still being priced as a growth stock. It's not like investors are undervaluing it that much.

Balls. If only I sold off at least a sizable chunk or my position before earnings came out to maybe lessen the oncoming blow, but with how the stock was acting before those earnings showed up, I, and hopefully the rest of the market, was expecting seriously positive results! Feels bad man.

So long story short, I did sell this thing off. Again, in the future it will most likely recover from this meltdown and appreciate considerably in value, but there is no telling how long it will take for that to happen. I also don't know how much farther this stock has to fall. And I don't have that much time to wait for this thing to catch upwards momentum.

I spent some time looking at my past trades, and really looking at trades that gave me a lot of success, and seeing which techniques I used for them.

For my next portfolio allocation, I'm looking to get out of those small-cap market-hated stocks, and do both a value and growth play.

So I bought shares of First American Financial,

I saw that it broke out into a serious uptrend and was reaching it's channel support levels, but its fundamentals were also pretty likable.

Its trading at a 16.37 PE and a 13.43 Forward PE. Pretty good EPS growth stats and a 2.85% dividend. Decent financial stats. 3.7% ROA, 10.2% ROE, and a 9.2% ROI. That all sounds pretty good to me.

Also bought shares of HPQ. It's trading at a 13.3x PE, and an 8.42x Forward PE. It's been recently battered down, and reaching oversold values, but because this is such a large and solid company overall I just took that as a buying opportunity. It differs from NDLS because I honestly am not so sure about that company's short term price movements, while I can be pretty sure that this company will stabilize better in the near future.

All not as fun as NDLS and PBPB, but a hell of a lot safer. With the extra support of the a solid dividend yield for both stocks, I can now focus more on the movement of the broader market and factor that more into my investment decisions, rather than look at small-cap negative-outlook, and as of right now, dogs, such as NDLS.

I was wrong. I was honestly thinking about deleting my last post to save some face, but whatever. We shall see in time if my decision was the right one or not. Should be right.

Better be.


Sunday, February 22, 2015

Noodles and Co. What happened?

Well, what happened during the past Friday was definitely eye-opening to say the least.

One of my holdings, Noodles and Company, released its earnings last Thursday.

The main points of the earnings report that was released during the fourth quarter, according to Jayson Derrick at Benzinga, are that “the company earned $0.13 in the quarter, a penny short of what analysts expected. Revenue of $108.5 million also fell short of the $110.07 million analysts expected. Looking forward to 2015, the company projected an earnings per share growth of around 20 percent, well short of the 34 percent growth analysts projected. In a report published Thursday evening, Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan commented that the company's reported earnings per share was below expectations due to "continued lackluster" same-store sales growth of 1.3 percent. Setyan noted that the company's 2015 earnings per share guidance was cut to 20 percent from a prior guidance of 20 to 25 percent, but continues to be predicted on a 2.5-40 percent same-store sales growth, 19 to 19.5 percent unit-level margins and 12-14 percent unit growth. The analyst added that the comp guidance relies on a 1-1.5 percent lift from catering, a 2 percent contribution from pricing and a "meaningful acceleration" in second half 2015 trends, despite tougher comparisons.”

Basically, the company is growing, albeit definitely not at the rate that investors were hoping for. With a price to earnings ratio at the extremely high levels that they were at before the stock got cut by 30% on Friday, the company was valued at a ratio where it was simply unacceptable for them to make any mistakes whatsoever.

I also heard that same store sales growth was also lackluster compared to other similar competing stores.

All this is all the more surprising with how the stock rallied hard on Thursday. I for one thought that their earnings report was going to be on par, maybe even better than expected.

Anyway, I’m not going to lie, I’m really pissed off with what happened. However, it was definitely still a risk I took and lost. It’s not like it was unfair. Potbelly, my other holding, had an earnings beat and rallied. I guess I couldn't get them both.

I think that there’s going to be a bounce back from the huge sell off which happened. I plan on holding. I don’t really think that this drastic of a sell off was completely deserved.

I still have time to keep letting this investment roll out, and there’s no way I’m going to sell it.
Honestly, if it drops down even more, I may even purchase a larger stake. Time heals all wounds, and I still think that this restaurant has a ways to grow.

Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing. The earnings report was not that bad. Still holding. We’ll see if it becomes a mistake.


Sunday, February 8, 2015

The Right Actions to Take

There is a huge opportunity cost associated with doing literally anything that I may want to do. I think it's both a blessing and a curse that there are just so many options for what I feel like doing. The problem is, what I could be spending doing one thing is time literally wasted that I could be doing for another.

So one of the things, if not the most worrying thing I have on my mind is college. Specifically, the college admissions process. That stuff is absolutely scary to me. With what I want to do, and the career path that I have sketched out for myself, I need to get into at least a target school that investment banks recruit from.

I feel like I'm doing most of my stuff right, but it's really times and days like these where I am at my wit's end deciding what to do. Because this is the weekend, there are so many choices for what I want to do to for the advancement of myself.

There are just so many factors that go into a college admission, but the varying importance that colleges may put on each factor, as well as the varying enjoyment I get out of doing certain tasks creates a huge discrepancy.

For example, today is Saturday. It's pretty late now, 1:57 AM. I had to decide between doing the following things. But there are also reasons to not doing those things either, which will also be listed above.

  1. Read "The Intelligent Investor". I'd say this is pretty enjoyable, but it is very dense and the information is really not exactly needed in the short term. 
  2. Get super good with Excel. I heard corporations love you if you know how to Excel but again, there is little chance to implement this knowledge and who wants to be stuck on a Saturday night learning Excel?
  3. Study my AP Gov textbook. This is short term knowledge that would be pretty useful because I have a really important test on Monday, but the first two topics are much more useful for what I want to do later on in my life.
  4. Procrastinate, sleep, and relax. I average about 4-5 hours of sleep on the weekdays and this would be duly welcomed. However I wouldn't be learning anything. I would just be sleeping.
And you know what stinks even more? The fact that I have to decide between these four things makes me super uncomfortable. I can't even get one of them done. Maybe the fourth, but not to the extent that I was hoping for.

So here I am, late Saturday night, with the culmination of that problem being writing this.

There is no moral to the story. Sorry.


Monday, February 2, 2015

Portfolio Update, and Falsification

This is just going to be a short little portfolio update. I think.

In case you read this post far into the future, Kevin, as well as the others that may be interested in what sophomore me is thinking at the turn of February, I am thinking that the Super Bowl was a pretty good game this year.

It is peaceful and pretty relaxed; and I feel like updating my blog after neglecting it for a while.

I realized that I only posted a freaking 4 times during 2014. That is unacceptable.

So I am back on the grind. I want to push out more and more content so as to validate my growth.

I have been messing with Think or Swim lately, and I honestly love it. It has a plethora of incredibly useful charting features and it just looks so... Professional.

However, I have not changed my portfolio allocation and or my holdings. My invested capital still remains half in NDLS and half in PBPB.

Right now I just feel like showing you the charts of both of them, as I feel that is sufficient identification.

As you can see, they have been both pretty much in an uptrend. That is good news for me. 

The only thing I am somewhat worried about is that NDLS recently got stuck in a wedge, and it came up with quite a bit of selling activity. I fear that this may cause it to go into a short term downtrend.

But when you look at the weekly chart, you can see that this is most likely a long term trend turnaround. I do not really see this going below the lows it went to during September.

I might put a trailing stop order if I see other potential trades that may be better than this one, however I feel decently confident in the long term performance of this stock.

Things are going pretty well. Although my overall return slipped a little bit from my last post, my trades have both not matured completely.

Onto a different subject.

I don't want to name names or really give exact examples, but I have come into the presence of quite a few cheaters and liars within my tenure as being a student as well as a teenage investor who is quite arguably really involved with this teenage finance society.

I see other teenage investors like me who lie about their performance and gains, and I see it actually pretty often.

But what I have found is that most of these people, if not all of them, are pretty high achievers in their own right. They could just as well be truthful about what they doing and how well they are doing and still be really respected for the work and passion they put into a subject that honestly takes quite a bit of dedication and intellect.

But also, it's not like what I see does not compute with my view on things; I do see the reason why some people might want to claim that they made 72 million dollars off the stock market, or turned one thousand dollars into two hundred thousand dollars within a year.

However, its all really dumb. People want self-validation, pride, a sense of extreme success that is only seen in Hollywood movies and dreams. 

They should have really kept it real. Kept it sane. I know for sure that one of the people in my mind can pretty much never get a real job at Wall Street again, and just can not be trusted or taken seriously anymore. He lied about his performance and it gained national media attention. Was it really worth it? He had what, 48 hours of national fame and is now just a laughingstock, a symbol for the public view of teenagers whom take themselves too seriously.

I'm just blabbing on. I'm getting tired and I have nothing more to say.



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