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Sunday, June 23, 2013

Irrational Exuberance

As highlighted by Alan Greenspan while I was reading my copy about the Entrepreneur magazine, it was talking about how people are now finally jumping into the market. "Professionals" such as doctors and lawyers are now deciding to buy in.

They are lemmings, or suckers, as the magazine would call them. 

I couldn't agree any more. Now is the time to SELL. I'm sorry, but even though the market is at all time highs does not mean that it is time to buy.

We have been through numerous times a stage where people just get in the market near the end of the bull run only to find that the market crashes in front of their eyes, ruining their portfolio and hindering their financial future.

I believe that we are in the midst of large scale downturn.

This article perfectly defined what I am feeling about the market right now.

I can't find the other image where it shows two men, one symbolizing the economy and another symbolizing the markets are engaged in a furious tug of war.

In other words, the economy, although slowly recovering, is not being well reflected by the markets at all.

Japan is now in a bear market, the Eurozone is still nowhere near in a good situation.

One should take huge precaution in the markets right now. Buying in right now could be a huge mistake.

I'm all in cash right now, I recommend you do the same.


Friday, June 21, 2013


I have recently exited from my position in gold. It has been 2-3 days since.

Luckily, I have not been burned by the 6% drop in price.

I think we are in for some serious volatility and/or downturn.

Feel free to comment.

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Sunday, June 16, 2013

Switching to Gold

Things have gone pretty crazy, my schedule is seriously unforgiving.

But let's cut to the chase, because this is supposed to be an update. So, an update it will be.

My overview on the market has turned, well, let's just say that it  isn't as bullish as before. 

I personally feel that people have overvalued the market at this time, so I have sold of all my shares for a $6000 profit and have moved into another type of investment.

In other words, my aggressive value/growth strategy has been completely ditched. I have moved into a used-to-be bubble, the commodity of gold.

I have moved into a somewhat conservative outlook in the recent days. Half of my portfolio has been diverted to gold. The other half will remain as cash.

With the market soaring right now, many would say, "Why Kevin, the DOW has been making all time highs! Why would you suddenly turn bearish when there is nothing wrong?"

But that is just it. From past studies that I have "conducted" on my own I have come to the realization that the market is a cycle. There is no unstoppable period of buying, people will buy, then people will sell.

That may still yet not be a plausible excuse for why I have completely sold everything, which was a mistake of mine.

I should have sold in increments. (Buying and selling in increments is a must for most portfolios), it's just that my portfolio isn't very large so I can't necessarily do that as the commissions would add up.

Because of course, the stock prices may most likely still be skyrocketing up. There is no perfect method to time the market.

I still believe that the market may still move up, but there is no telling. The recent performance of the DOW has also been not so stellar, also.

So that's whats been going on recently. I have also begun reading "The Intelligent Investor".


Feel free to comment.

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Wednesday, June 5, 2013

You didn't think I forgot, didn't you?

Well, the rigorous schedule has recently begun.

It was much harder than I thought.

I have been spending much of my day looking at the market, annotating, and doing my geometry homework.

I have been eyeing the market closely, because I think we are on the verge of a major downturn.

I have also made some huge changes to my portfolio, I will discuss my decisions more in detail but let's just say I have taken a more bearish portfolio.

I really can't wait to talk about it because I have made some drastic changes.

I have an extremely busy schedule, but I will keep posting. Don't worry.


Sunday, June 2, 2013

It's about to begin

Well, the rigorous schedule that I have described to you is about to become a reality tomorrow.

Although I have made all of the necessary preparations to make sure my day goes "smoothly", I can't but help thinking about how my next six weeks are going to be extremely hard to cope with.

I am going to have to annotate, read, and study endlessly with the addition of my regular soccer regimen.

To be honest, it will most likely be worse than school. 

I only have had a week of summer break, now back to being in a classroom again working on academics, then going home and resting for under an hour, and heading to soccer practice against some very competitive and talented soccer players.

There's really nothing to say about that. I pretty much got myself into it, as I guess I want a "better future", but I'm getting that butterfly in my stomach kind of feeling.

Don't worry. I will post on this blog daily as the time goes on. I recently found out that I can just blog on my iDevices, so I can work on my posts everywhere. 

That means that I can and will be able to post much more frequently. I feel as if I have gotten relatively good at writing these posts and the words just flow from my mind to the screen as I furiously type away everything that's been going on.

Another thing that I want to say is that I have recently sold SYNT. Reason being as the outcome was bad. Although I still believe that fundamentally the company is very strong it seems that the masses of people believe otherwise as this baby is not doing so well even though we are in a very bullish market.

I decided to go with the FLOW. Hahaha, right?

 I believe that the stock is well undervalued and has been underperforming what it should be this year for its sector and industry.

As the market becomes more and more overbought and therefore overvalued, so will this stock, becoming more and more fairly valued.

Industrial goods as a whole has done well this year so far, just underperforming utilities and healthcare for this year according to stocktouch.

There are a lot of things about this stock which signifies that it is undervalued.

The PEG and PS ratio are under 1.

The company has outstanding growth and projected EPS while maintaining a relatively high return on equity. 

Debt to equity ratio is 0.1 and long term debt to equity ratio is 0.

I have a good feeling about my decision. Hopefully it will reward me well.


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