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Thursday, May 30, 2013

Summer Studies and Portfolio Performance

This is more of an off topic post, but I have some things I would like to share.

First off, I have a lot of things over the summer.

It's going to be hectic.

I don't know if I'll survive.

Now I'm not a little loser crybaby that laments all of my problems towards you, but this is what's going on.

I have to annotate a 600 page book thing for school next year. "A Boy's Life".

It's not like I don't want to do it, it's just that I honestly don't have the time, as I planned for this summer to be hardcore study time for finance from me.

I was actually planning to learn basic bookkeeping and accounting, in addition to my desire to cover by the end of month two of summer, a clear understanding of two books I recently bought. The Little Book of Valuation by Aswath Damodaran and The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, both quite long, were meant to be part of my studies.

But no worries, as contrary to my past performance behavior with my blog posts, I am actually going to do this.

I just have to get Bookkeeping for Dummies, and Quickbooks. (I already have Excel) to begin my project, while simultaneously reading those two books.

This is probably going to be at the very least troublesome.

Well, back to where the real information is at.

My portfolio has done quite well this month.

Performance of my portfolio compared to the DOW Jones Averages.
Overall Performance.

Yeah. It's safe to say I am not doing too badly. Also, to clear any negative sentiment to my "bragging" about my performance, I am not trying to flaunt my performance. I am going to need to use this information as proof for later on in my life. I don't know how I will use it, but I am sure it will be helpful.

SYNT, the stock I was discussing on my last post is still stagnating along.

There are many things that can happen, at least on a technical perspective. (You already know about my positive fundamental outlook on this company.)

1. It can create a channel upwards, which isn't uncommon.  As you can see, a channel/wedge is already beginning to form so I believe that it may just rally up and create such upward channel. It can either rally and meet resistance to drive it down to the bottom blue line above, or create an entirely new channel as shown with the black line. That would be great. This is a positive outcome.

2. It can fall down but meet support at the horizontal blue line at the 62 level. The stock could either go up or down from there, but I am sure that it will meet support there. If this happens, when the stock rebounds from the support but is still looking negative, I may exit at the end of the rebound. This is a neutral outcome.

3. The stock rallies down because of the double top formation, the negative volume today that somehow resulted in a positive change in price, or just negative market sentiment. This would be a negative outcome. I may exit in this too.

Only time can tell what my decision will be.

Although this is extremely off topic, I'm also possibly thinking of launching a real business sometime. It will have to be online, as there is no way I can have a brick-and-mortar business as a teen, but I don't know what I am really going to do.

Thanks for listening. This was a really odd post as I switched from topic to topic, but I want to communicate more with myself and my possible readers.


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Monday, May 27, 2013

Problems With SYNT

Right now, I am in quite a bit of a situation with a stock that I am owning right now, SYNT.

The technicals say that the stock is about to undergo a turnaround in its upward trend, as the stock has gone through a double top pattern.

A double top means trouble, at least for short term performance.

The only hope I have in a technical point of view is if the stock meets support at the 62 level, which would then bring the stock into a sideways channel.

Who knows what that could bring. Channels usually create very large up or downtrends.

The fundamentals from finviz say good things about this stock.

What I like about it is how it is undervalued at this juncture of time, the PEG is 0.86.

The EPS growth for next year is lower than this year, so that would also be a consideration when purchasing this stock. The growth is "slowing down".

But what really really shines to me is the metrics for how well the management is performing regarding this stock.

They can still maintain a 27% Return on Assets, 32% Return on Equity, and 32% Return on Investment while maintaining a minimal debt to equity ratio.

Their business model is also quite profitable. The Operating and Profit Margin are 29% and 25%, which does quite well against their larger cap competitors such as IBM with 20% and 16%, and Xerox with 6% and roughly 5%.

It is safe to say that the management and the financial strength of this company is well off and will remain that way long into the future. The long term debt to equity ratio is 0.

Fundamentally, this stock is strong.

Technically, this stock is weak for the time being.

And it all comes down to me, the investor, the businessman, to decide on if I should follow what the chart says and sell, or listen to the actual company and hold it out.

Well, it is safe to say that I despise people who make investment decisions based on "technicals". They only last for a short time and at least for my point of view, it never works.

Screw technicals. This company is running well and I think a stupid chart pattern cannot dictate what the future prospects of this company will be.

So what do I choose to do with this stock?

I'm going to

Honestly, I don't know why I even bothered to put that image inside of my blog. It fits the tone of my message, so why not?

Well, thanks for being with me while I decide on my future action with this stock, this post isn't just for people to hopefully learn from. This is for me, to think through my decisions better.

I appreciate you reading.


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Sunday, May 12, 2013

What's going on?

Guess who's back. Back again.

So don't worry.

It will come, and I will be able to ale sure that I can recollect my thoughts on the best timely manner possible.

I also want to have a portfolio update to talk about.

I can't talk enough about how well my portfolio has been doing this past month.

Jeez. I have had over 70% returns with REGI. BBSI is also giving me 30% returns.

Coupled together with my other stock picks, which have been positive but not so stellar, I have around 30% returns for my portfolio so far.

That means that with my $15,000 worth of start up capital, I have had $5,000 dollars worth of gains.

My total portfolio's worth is $20,000.

It feels pretty good to be in a bull market. I think that I have been taking pretty good advantage of all of the positive "energy" that I think has taken ahold of the markets these days.

Reasons? The S&P500 is near or at all-time highs. U.S. stocks have outperformed many other markets that have been considered to be high growth this year.

Anyway, I'm at 30% returns and it hasn't even been one year. I'm probably around 8/12 of the way done.

There still may be room to grow even more.


P.S. I will post much more often now but it may come at odd mistakes and improper grammar as I am writing some of my articles on my iPod touch.

Metric Monday tomorrow.


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