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Sunday, January 27, 2013

Portfolio update.

Rough Week.

My stock picks got bullied on Friday, one because of earnings disappointments and the other two because of just the fact that it wasn't their best day.

My portfolio has suffered and you may have thought that I sold off all of my shares, but I still believe that these stocks are even more undervalued as we speak.

To be honest, I would be buying even more shares of this stock but I can't since I don't have the funds. It really sucks..

Well, thanks for listening in. I think the reason why I got hit was because of how I decided choose aggressive, high growth stocks and to be honest, I should be prepared for these kind of situations.

What I can tell you is that it hurts. A lot.

(This isn't actual me)

Feel free to comment.

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Monday, January 21, 2013

Stock Analysis of APPL

Hey guys, it has been somewhat of a dormant week and really, I just felt like analyzing something.

So I decided to look at AAPL.

Here is the download link for the PDF. It costs nothing.

Portfolio Update:

It's doing well, around a 5% gain and I am still keeping all of the stocks that I have mentioned earlier.

Feel free to comment.

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Thursday, January 17, 2013

What Moves Stock Prices?

People seem to have a quality to invest in markets in hopes of making profits without actually understanding the system of it, and how it works.

You might think, "Duh", when the company is good it goes up the price goes up and when it's not the best the price goes down.

But there is quite a bit to learn if you know that there are so many things you can interpret from a stock just by looking prices, or buyer sentiment, or all in all, charts.

Note: Charts are never enough to base solely a decision on, but they can be invaluable tools to determine trends and momentum.

There are things you might have heard of before; chart patterns. I said I would get into them but there is no reason to explain a chart pattern before I explain how chart patterns have been proven to work with logic.

So let's get straight into it.

How the Stock Prices actually move:

There is something called a market maker. This used to be done with manual workers but now is becoming more of an electronic thing. This is someone (or something) that tries to "balance out the number of buyers and sellers". They don't want too many buyers nor sellers, so they manipulate the price until it is fairly valued. So when there is overwhelming buying pressure, the market maker raises the price until people start to sell. When there are too many sellers, the market maker lowers the price until the buyers start to come in.

*There is also something called a bid and ask. But don't worry about that. That's just how they make money. Also, just remember that the lower the bid and ask spread, the more liquid the asset is. (The easier to sell closer to market price, or what you expect it to sell at)*

But by fairly valued, I mean whatever the general public believes it should be worth. People. Some random  people that don't even research. Some are naive. Very few are insiders. It's not always "fair".

But that is just my opinion, there are 2 types of ways to think about this:

  • Efficient Market Theory: All stocks are fairly priced. The best way to make money is to look at chart patterns and look at trends, and time your entrance and exit to maximize returns.
  • Inefficient Market Theory: Not all stocks are fairly priced. Fundamentals and the company itself will affect the company in the future.
Your choice.

But now to what moves the stock prices, not how it moves.

Things that move the stock market prices:

  • Fear and Greed. In my opinion, the main thing. These are emotions that are programmed into every trader, every investor, every human being. There is no other way to say it, people make stupid or smart decisions based on fear of losing money or greediness, the hopes that their investment will pay off nicely. (Check out the Fear and Greed Index here.) Remember, be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.
  • Trends. Stocks tend to follow trends. There are many trends out there, such as when great earnings reports come out or when great news come out. Some trends can be greater than others, such as if a largely shorted stock, or stock that has been bet against suddenly comes out with great news, people will rush to cover the shorts resulting in a shot up in stock price.
  • Patterns. This can't be completely trusted as the well-known chart patterns have already been found. But they are good benchmarks when looking at charts.
  • Politics & News. The Fiscal Cliff being solved? The drama that happened before it? The largest 1 day gain in the Dow for a year after the news broke loose? People unleashed hell and bought so many shares that if you looked at the quotes that day everything shed a bright shade of glorious green?
  • Dividends. When companies cut their dividends, the stock price moves down as the dividend support goes down a bit. What I mean is that if the stock price of a dividend paying company suddenly crashes, the dividend will "grow" in value as the company now pays a higher dividend value per share, as the share price has been lowered. When companies add on to their dividends, prices move up and there is little chance that they will actually cut it. Why? They will look bad. No one wants to look bad.
  • Company Itself (Fundamentals). Now this is complicated. The company is only as healthy in it's share price as much as the buyers and sellers in the markets decide it to be. But if the company is healthy, growing well, and not overvalued, (I will teach you how to find this later) it should have had a positive Year to Date (YTD) return, otherwise it must be stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Other than that, nothing else really moves share prices. (Recessions fit into news.) 

You should remember this. You know what? Write this down. Put it in your briefcase because this is the root reason behind all gains and losses in the markets. 

Feel free to comment.

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Monday, January 14, 2013

Getting Motivated.

Dang. We've hit 5,000 views and I have 3 followers. Me, another account I made, and another stranger that I am so thankful for. Well, here we keep going. I'm pretty pumped to make my blog posts... Better than ever.

I still don't know any way to accomplish that task, and I procrastinate way too much. It sucks. I know, I should do better but laziness always gets the better of me. Dang.

Well, not anymore. I will post next week, and the week after! I know it!

So. Let us get started with the weekly update.

I have decided to hold everything. Everything is still undervalued.

This is really quite hard to see isn't it? Well, the PEG Ratio is still a measly 0.15 and I just really love this stock.  I have had some good gains with it in the past and even though with the last resistance I love this for a long-term hold. Renewable Energy is a fast-growing company with huge upside, it had a bad IPO this year but I still think it has huge room to grow.

Click on it.

Just look at those fundamentals man! They're great! Also, the next year estimated EPS is actually higher, I don't know what this website is doing.

But anyways, a solid stock overall.

Next up, I am still holding the beast which is BBSI, a staffing and outsourcing company which has rapid growth and beats those estimates time and time again.

Delightful. Yes, indeed.

Lastly, we have IACI. I'm not sure about this stock but it has a nice dividend, and is a well established tech company that I believe has business opportunities. It owns,, etc.

Again, not so bad.

But there is a head and shoulders pattern here, which is not so good for the reasons I will tell you, sometime this week. Sorry.

This is just a portfolio update, and I think that I may begin to turn these things into simpler posts with just my portfolio and performance against the S&P 500 

3-Day Performance vs SP500


Do you hear me bragging? I still have something good though,

3-Month Performance vs. SP500

Ah! the table has turned! If I beat the SP500 this year overall then I will be quite happy, and will hopefully acquire more and more funds to trade with.

But let's stay small. No need to get so much in a rush.

Even with my good performance, I'm still a beginner.
Feel free to comment.

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