Pages

Subscribe:

Ads 468x60px

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Changes

I'm going to make this short and sweet.

I just got the last $20,000 added to the portfolio.

I sold EXPR.

Although I believe the stock still has quite a bit of upside for it later on in the future, since we are now in a bull market I think investors will actually flock away from this stock in search of other investment opportunities that can provide a more handsome return.

The price of EXPR since its IPO has been volatile and hasn't really taken off. They have some things they need to sort out.

So with the remaining funds that I had, I bought 3 other stocks and divided my remaining cash evenly among the three positions.

First off, I bought AutoNation.


Decent fundamentals. PEG is quite nice for my tastes.

EPS growth is expected.

P/E and FWD P/E are nice.

Decent ROE, ROI, ROA.

Only thing this company might have a problem with is how it has very little cash reserves, as shown by the P/C ratio.

But I mainly bought this company on a macroeconomic standpoint.

The average US car is around 11.4 years old, from what I hear. Click here for the article. (autonews.com)

People will be looking for new cars with the rising economy and bull market.

AutoNation is a nice pick.

CarMax and some Auto Manufacturers would have been nice picks too, but I like AutoNation the most.

My next buy was QIWI.

The fundamentals.


I like.

The only problem with this position is that I bought it with an RSI in the overbought range.

Who knows? I might be burned a bit short term because of this, but I really want in and I don't have the time nor effort to time the perfect entry point.

My last buy was VFC

They own a lot of nice clothing brands.

The North Face and Timberland are among them.

They have also recently had a 4 for 1 split.

They are doing very well.

The fundamentals from FINVIZ are wrong, because they didn't take into account the split and now the stats are all screwed up.

I like this company for their nice all around stats.

Don't have anything else to say about it.

-Kevin

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Sunday Update

It is about that time where I have to look over my holdings for the week and see how they performed.

Overall, my portfolio looks great. It performed well this week.

Really well.

I am holding four securities right now at the moment.

For this post I will just be reviewing the technical strength of my holdings; the glowing fundamentals of my three long term investments are still intact and fine, and my speculation stock is still ok.

The first one is UBNT.


As you can see, the technicals of this stock have varying cases and tell different stories.

What I pull out of this chart which includes RSI, MACD, and Full Stochs is that for the next one to two days, the stock probably will slip a bit in price, I think that that the Stochs and Bollinger Bands shows that for near term, the stock has reached a height in its trend.

But the long term prospects for the stock are still great. For one, the MACD is finally climbing up. If you look at the MACD in the very left of the chart to where July is, the stock began a climb and began to resemble a chart pattern that is called the "Elliot Wave".



Boom. If we take a closer look at the MACD which is annotated I will number the patterns that the MACD of EXPR follows which corresponds to the Elliot Wave.

Want an explanation of why I just did what I did? Download this PDF to find out what I just based those letters and numbers off of.

I think the long term prospectus of UBNT are great.

I think the short term price fluctuations of the stock will be more towards the negative during the next few market days.

Let's move on to NUS.



Though the fundamentals are incredibly strong, NUS is also positioned for a short term sell-off. The stock has been lingering at the top of its Bollinger Band for too long and the Full Stochs says that it is incredibly overbought in terms of short term fluctuations. The RSI is also heading towards the pinnacle as well.

But I also noticed that the RSI tends to soar right back up whenever the stock reaches around a 50 RSI level.

If this stock goes down to a 50 RSI level, I will definitely be picking up more of this stock.


MNST, my best performer out of all of my holdings, is also approaching an incredibly overbought level.

This is no big deal at all. I want to hold this for the long term.

But I also think that this will be selling off in the short term.

Now, let's talk about my speculation - EXPR.


Ever since the stock lost over 20% of its value due to somewhat bad earnings that lowered the average investor's outlook for this company's growth potential, I put it on my watch list and as soon as the MACD began to turn around slowly but surely in the histogram, I knew that I had timed the bottom of the stock and bought it. 

I am going to keep holding this stock and see how long my timing of the market bottom will take me.

The fundamentals are kind of eh for this stock but the technicals show possibilities for huge upswing. That's what I want to see the during the next week.

Overall, I think that my portfolio may be in for quite a bit of a sell off within the next five days to come. 

The only stock that I am pretty sure will rise is EXPR.

But I don't have the time or effort to try to time these sell offs, since I trade on a custodial account and I have to deal with T-3 and all of that nonsense, and for what? So I can save myself the 1-3% that I may lose? 

Get real. I have another $20,000 coming in and I want to scope out the market looking for more opportunities to invest in.

If I can't find any, since this market is somewhat overbought, I will just add on to my positions.

Anyway, happy holidays and Merry Christmas! My finals have just finished so I will be seriously looking at the markets over Winter Break.

I just managed to get away with a quality GPA for my first semester, so I am pretty happy about that, to say the least. 

bye.

-Kevin




Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits





Saturday, December 14, 2013

Update on the Portfolio, and Why I Can't Trade

I decided to put the extra $30,000 to use.

What I did was add two other positions to my portfolio.

My first buy, $15,000, is NUS.


Now, don't think I am some scrub that would buy a stock just because it is "going up". I am buying this stock not because of the chart, but because of the fundamentals that the company has going for it.

Let's break down my analysis of Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc.


Nothing makes me happier than a stock with some quality fundamentals.

I can name a lot of great things I like about this stock, but do not worry, I will also name negatives about this choice because I don't want to make it seem like I am all-knowing and always correct.

Pros:

1. Market cap is at 7 billion. Most ten-baggers and soon to be large-cap stocks normally start off with a decently smallish market cap with either an extraordinary product or service, or quality fundamentals.

2. There is a dividend. What I personally feel about dividends is that they provide a very nice "safety-net" regarding any stock's share price.

In other words, just imagine this in your head, if a stock were to fall a certain percentage for reasons that do not completely pertain to the company's profitability, such as missing earnings estimates or any such event that would hinder their earnings, then the dividend yield percentage would technically rise.

As long as the company does not cut its dividend, which companies rarely do, as if they establish or raise dividends, then the share price probably won't fall too much. 

I know this is kind of unclear, sorry.

3. P/E Ratio is one to be desired. 26.57 P/E for this fiscal year and a 17.32 Forward P/E is in my opinion, quite undervalued for such quality earnings growth.

4. PEG ratio is below one, again, undervalued in respect to the company's growth.

5. If you take the estimated next year's earnings per share and multiply by this year's P/E ratio, (hopefully also next year's P/E ratio or even larger), the share price should be valued at $200. That means that I would gain 50% return. At the very least, earnings per share are expected to grow by 50%. That can never be a bad thing.

6. Management Metrics are very good. ROE, ROI, ROA are all quality.

7. Profit margins are decent. They can be improved, and whenever I invest in a company I make sure that something can be "improved". That's the metric.

Cons:

1. I now have 2 stocks in Consumer Goods, I am not necessarily diversifying properly.

2. This company has a LOT of competitors. I can't even count them.

3. Although this may seem amateurish, but the stock has gone up quite a bit. It could very well run into some turbulence and maybe even a bear run.

Anyway, I still think that the pros outweigh the cons. That's why I'm a buyer.

My next buy, the other $15,000, is EXPR. Express, an online clothing store.

That's a speculation.


As you can see, this stock has definitely been very volatile. 

It dropped after the company lowered its quarter's earnings expectations.

What I personally feel now is that this stock has definitely been pushed down a bit too far. 

The volatility in this stock just crazy, and I think that the wedge that is forming will allow this stock to meet support at the 18.20 level, the price I bought it at.


Every technical indicator for this stock indicates that it is way oversold. Anyway, I'm not looking to hold this stock forever, I'll probably hold it for a week or two, and see how it pans out.

I would put a stop loss on this trade, but this stock is already very volatile already and I don't want to get stopped out of the trade before I get my gains.

I'll probably put in a stop loss for a 1 dollar loss, but I am pretty sure about this trade anyway.

Let's just ride it out.

Let's also get to why I can't trade, if you are reading this, you are probably wondering why I included that in the title.

I just want to reassure myself that I truly don't have the time to do it.

I already applied for margin to get rid of that annoying T-3 settlement thing that pertains to all cash accounts, so I would technically have the ability to trade.

It's just that I have school on days on which the market is open. I don't have the ability to day trade during school for a couple of reasons: 1: I have to focus. Gotta get them grades. 2: The only method I have to consistently trade is with my phone. That would be hard, because TradeKing's mobile app sucks. I would screw up orders and everything would just be slow.

The only solutions I have?

1. Skip some classes (I have no supervised study) to trade. Not happening.

2. Trade during lunch. Not a bad idea, but I still wouldn't have enough time as the max time I could be in a position is around 30 minutes and trading like that without proper research beforehand is stupidity.

3. Trade FOREX. Still not a bad idea, but then I would have to get to know FOREX first. I'll probably wait until summer to begin my endeavors with that.

It's complicated for me.

I'll just do the best with what I have, and swing trade throughout the rest of the school year.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot about this:

Portfolio Update:

Everything is good.

I'm done now.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

50k

Some extra funds just got cleared by tradeking.
Now I have 50k to work with. Time to turn on the jets.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Update 12/8/13

It's time for another update on how my portfolio is doing at the moment.

My Portfolio According to SigFig for this Year

It has been just over one year and I think I am doing incredibly well.

In terms of using this information as a feasible "track record", this may not be enough time to be used as a means to get others to invest in me, but I definitely am off to a nice start.

Right now, my two main holdings are still UBNT and MNST.

My updates on those two positions are also quite positive.


UBNT dropped off a hefty 8.71% today. I decided to check on news and commentary on why this stock dropped off.

I found no reason. This may be because my resources are limited and all I can check are the websites which give out free information, or hopefully, this is just a byproduct of market volatility.

I also probably should be expecting that, considering this is an incredibly high growth tech stock.

The fundamentals on the company haven't changed, and the earnings and growth outlook for it are still quite positive and well.

I see no reason to sell it, given the fundamentals are still same and there is no actual reason to why the stock dropped off 8%.

My guess is that an institution decided to sell of their shares of the company, but anyway, I am expecting a decent 4-5% gain on Monday. The negative volume surrounding the 8% drop is a pinnacle.

History repeats itself. Most of the times when this particular stock drops on such high volume, it is followed with a bullish response and shoots up in value.

If the stock still continues to flop then I would be a bit more concerned. Instead of it possibly being market volatility, it could be the end of the high-flying momentum this stock has going for it, although again, the fundamentals of the company are still quite sound.


MNST is now the top performer. My comments on the chart is on the picture below.


It broke out of the negative head and shoulders pattern that happened throughout the course from Sept. to Dec.

It also broke out of the negative trend line from July 15 to Nov 25.

These are all very bullish signals.

I picked this up in Oct 6th, a few days before it began its long path upwards.

Yay.

MNST also has quality fundamentals that have not changed, so I am also not planning on selling off this stock anytime soon.

Other than the fact that I am now in crunch time mode for finals, overall, everything is going really well. Christmas is coming up, too. Awesome.

-Kevin




Friday, November 29, 2013

Thanksgiving

It's right now 11:18 at night as I write this sentence.

I'm sitting cross-legged on my bed, prepared to go to sleep, yet I find myself on this laptop writing something. I have absolutely no idea why.

Thanksgiving is a day in which we are supposed to recount all of the blessings we have been given, and to share them with others. We are supposed to join hands and talk about what we truly value and what we are glad to have in our lives.

I would join in with the norm and recount what I am also thankful for, but I have a small problem with this idea.

That would mean I normally do not value what things I have been granted. I can not think of any day in my life in which I have not been grateful for something. Or someone.

For example, my portfolio. I right now have thousands of dollars to manage.

What kind of stupid parents gives their son that much money to work with?

Mine.

Every day when I do finance related stuff, I know that my inspiration and my true passion is not completely self generated.

If I had not been allowed to manage that much money when I was 12, I would be nowhere near as interested in the markets as I am now. Without that startup funding, I would be restricted to a crummy simulator. I would have probably stopped by now, most likely for a long time.


Although I have done very well, I still think about the chance that I screw up and lose. Big time. What if that 42.9% gain was instead, a 42.9% loss?

What if the money I was given was cut in nearly half?

What if I had lost some thousands of dollars that my parents had invested in me?

I do not know, and I hope to never find out.

But the encouraging thought is that they were prepared to make that risk. They were okay with the possibility of me losing.

Otherwise, they would have never invested in me.

And I would have never been as excited and eager to learn about finance as I am now.

(I am annotating The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham, steadily gaining ground)

And I would have never tried.

They gave me the opportunity to do what I wanted by preparing for the possibility of losing thousands of dollars, which seems like a ludicrous idea to me.

And there are so many other kids that could be as interested in finance as I was and am, but their parents just do not trust them enough. They, in turn, do not reach their full potential.

I have been graciously gifted the chance to generate as much wealth as possible for I head off to college as possible, by doing something I enjoy, with the very plausible risk of me losing it all.

That is what I am most thankful for. That single opportunity.

Kevin

P.S. Get ready for some shorter posts. I want to share my annotations and I have to grind for finals.

Monday, November 4, 2013

How long has it been? 4-5 months?

It has been so long since I have posted it has gotten to the point where it gets to the point where it seems like it will be incredibly hard to post again. Just another way of proving that you should never put off tomorrow what you can't do today.

But the fact is that my portfolio (or portfolios, now) for that matter have not been dormant. I still have been making trades and investments.





As you can most likely see from the Shares 2 app (which is awesome, I highly recommend it for its simplicity and ease of tracking your investments), and the regular TradeKing website, my picks have yielded good returns.

Now let's seriously delve into what reasons I have for picking my two stocks. Obviously, this is nowhere near a diversified portfolio with only two holdings and around $22,500 to manage. 




The chart is decent. I don't make all of my decisions off the chart but it truly helps to recognize technical patterns. The problem I have with technical patterns is what you can see is happening right now, near November. The stock price is stagnating at the 56-58 range.

There are many chart patterns that can or may be created from this.
  • Head and Shoulders. The first head and shoulder has already formed.
  • Channel. The price would continue stagnating along this price range.
  • Ascending Wedge. (At least that is what I think it is called) The price retains the same low and breaks out into higher highs.
That's why I just don't really always go by the chart. Technical analysis is just not worth my



 As you can see, the fundamentals (finviz.com - november 4th, 2013) are just fantastic. The stock has some serious earnings growth that is projected and the P/E ratio isn't really that bad for such large expected earnings growth.

Metrics for management are good. ROA, ROI, and ROE are top notch. This is super important whenever I decide on a stock to invest in. Operating and Profit Margins are good, and EPS growth is substantial.

The only other true company in this same industry with this kind of earnings growth is SodaStream Intl.

The problem I have with that stock is that it is a bit too volatile for my taste.


Not by how the daily fluctuations would be large (I could care less about that), but monthly volatility is just a bit too risky for a stock that I would want to be into, and it isn't very far from newly-released IPO status. I dislike especially mid 2011, when the stock lost more than half its value in one month.

So I'll just be leaving that one alone for the time being.


Again, fantastic management metrics and earnings are expected to double next year. Forward P/E ratio would be a mere 20.51, and I think that a company with these PROFIT MARGINS, ROE, ROI, ROA, Good cash reserves and a PEG ratio that just really isn't that farfetched will retain or even enlarge the 43.91 P/E ratio that it haves right now.

It also has a market cap of $3.44 billion. Fun fact: most ten-baggers start out with market caps within the range of $1-5 billion.

Feeling good. I got rid of Tesla a while back (surprise, within the last 4 months I've managed to sell my shares of PDFS and BRK-B and bought TSLA) because it was a bubble stock and that went against everything I stood for. I am not a follower and I don't get into bubbles because bubbles have a 100% chance of popping. Sorry, I haven't posted that as well.

It recently dropped off from its 52-week high anyway these past 2 weeks, so I guess that's a good... decision?

Again, the reason why I am not so diversified is because I truly do believe in these two companies. One is in Con Goods, and another is in Tech, so it's not like I'm getting two stocks from the same sector. That would be bad.

I also think Warren Buffett said that he doesn't believe in diversification if the company is "sound", so that is also another backer of my argument. And he hasn't done too poorly.

But it all boils down to the fact that I can do whatever I want. And I'm not doing too poorly either.

-Kevin

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Somewhat of a Change of Heart

Well, I was wrong. I admit it. Kind of.

The thing is, the market is still booming.

I've decided to play it safer now though, as although all kinds of companies are beating estimated earnings and consumer sentiment is the highest it has been since 2007, we could be going straight into another trap.

I bought shares of PDFS,


A high growth company that stands out to me because of its EPS growth, PEG of less than one and absolutely no debt to equity.

I believe that there is a bright future for this company.

But to even out the fact that I just chose a small cap stock, I picked a large conglomerate to even out my risk.

I also bought shares of Berkshire Hathaway.


So that's about it.

I'm looking to exit out of my position at least after a month. I want to see how much the economy heats up as time goes on.

And I want some of that action.


Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Friday, July 12, 2013

Update

Well, the market obviously hasn't gone to the hell I thought it would be going to... yet.

Right now it is fair to say that the market was on a bit of downtrend, but has very obviously come back in spectacular fashion.


I'm expecting for the upturn to continue as the daily chart for the average shows that the averages were down on midday but have come back due to investor's bullish opinions. The MACD has also very recently crossed into bullish territory, so I don't expect things to come crashing down.

I am still all in cash right now.

Which is somewhat good, somewhat bad.

I have avoided much of the volatility that I may have undergone because of staying in the market.

But as I have said before, from July to now, the market has roared back into good standing.

I won't be buying back in though, because that would be stupid to buy back into the craze of the market coming back. I would may as well find that this is the turning point again.

My strategy for the near and long term future is to wait.

I'm going to try and stay with cash right now and hope to find more hidden gems like I did with REGI and BBSI.

I don't want to go into large cap stocks because I only bet on things I am completely sure on.

I am not (and no one is) completely sure on the market direction.

-Kevin

Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Sunday, June 23, 2013

Irrational Exuberance

As highlighted by Alan Greenspan while I was reading my copy about the Entrepreneur magazine, it was talking about how people are now finally jumping into the market. "Professionals" such as doctors and lawyers are now deciding to buy in.

They are lemmings, or suckers, as the magazine would call them. 

I couldn't agree any more. Now is the time to SELL. I'm sorry, but even though the market is at all time highs does not mean that it is time to buy.

We have been through numerous times a stage where people just get in the market near the end of the bull run only to find that the market crashes in front of their eyes, ruining their portfolio and hindering their financial future.

I believe that we are in the midst of large scale downturn.


This article perfectly defined what I am feeling about the market right now.

I can't find the other image where it shows two men, one symbolizing the economy and another symbolizing the markets are engaged in a furious tug of war.

In other words, the economy, although slowly recovering, is not being well reflected by the markets at all.

Japan is now in a bear market, the Eurozone is still nowhere near in a good situation.

One should take huge precaution in the markets right now. Buying in right now could be a huge mistake.

I'm all in cash right now, I recommend you do the same.

-Kevin 

Friday, June 21, 2013

Update.

I have recently exited from my position in gold. It has been 2-3 days since.

Luckily, I have not been burned by the 6% drop in price.

I think we are in for some serious volatility and/or downturn.


Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Sunday, June 16, 2013

Switching to Gold

Things have gone pretty crazy, my schedule is seriously unforgiving.

But let's cut to the chase, because this is supposed to be an update. So, an update it will be.

My overview on the market has turned, well, let's just say that it  isn't as bullish as before. 

I personally feel that people have overvalued the market at this time, so I have sold of all my shares for a $6000 profit and have moved into another type of investment.

In other words, my aggressive value/growth strategy has been completely ditched. I have moved into a used-to-be bubble, the commodity of gold.

I have moved into a somewhat conservative outlook in the recent days. Half of my portfolio has been diverted to gold. The other half will remain as cash.

With the market soaring right now, many would say, "Why Kevin, the DOW has been making all time highs! Why would you suddenly turn bearish when there is nothing wrong?"

But that is just it. From past studies that I have "conducted" on my own I have come to the realization that the market is a cycle. There is no unstoppable period of buying, people will buy, then people will sell.

That may still yet not be a plausible excuse for why I have completely sold everything, which was a mistake of mine.

I should have sold in increments. (Buying and selling in increments is a must for most portfolios), it's just that my portfolio isn't very large so I can't necessarily do that as the commissions would add up.

Because of course, the stock prices may most likely still be skyrocketing up. There is no perfect method to time the market.

I still believe that the market may still move up, but there is no telling. The recent performance of the DOW has also been not so stellar, also.

So that's whats been going on recently. I have also begun reading "The Intelligent Investor".

-Kevin


Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Wednesday, June 5, 2013

You didn't think I forgot, didn't you?

Well, the rigorous schedule has recently begun.

It was much harder than I thought.

I have been spending much of my day looking at the market, annotating, and doing my geometry homework.

I have been eyeing the market closely, because I think we are on the verge of a major downturn.

I have also made some huge changes to my portfolio, I will discuss my decisions more in detail but let's just say I have taken a more bearish portfolio.

I really can't wait to talk about it because I have made some drastic changes.

I have an extremely busy schedule, but I will keep posting. Don't worry.

-Kevin 

Sunday, June 2, 2013

It's about to begin

Well, the rigorous schedule that I have described to you is about to become a reality tomorrow.

Although I have made all of the necessary preparations to make sure my day goes "smoothly", I can't but help thinking about how my next six weeks are going to be extremely hard to cope with.

I am going to have to annotate, read, and study endlessly with the addition of my regular soccer regimen.

To be honest, it will most likely be worse than school. 

I only have had a week of summer break, now back to being in a classroom again working on academics, then going home and resting for under an hour, and heading to soccer practice against some very competitive and talented soccer players.

There's really nothing to say about that. I pretty much got myself into it, as I guess I want a "better future", but I'm getting that butterfly in my stomach kind of feeling.

Don't worry. I will post on this blog daily as the time goes on. I recently found out that I can just blog on my iDevices, so I can work on my posts everywhere. 

That means that I can and will be able to post much more frequently. I feel as if I have gotten relatively good at writing these posts and the words just flow from my mind to the screen as I furiously type away everything that's been going on.

Another thing that I want to say is that I have recently sold SYNT. Reason being as the outcome was bad. Although I still believe that fundamentally the company is very strong it seems that the masses of people believe otherwise as this baby is not doing so well even though we are in a very bullish market.

I decided to go with the FLOW. Hahaha, right?



 I believe that the stock is well undervalued and has been underperforming what it should be this year for its sector and industry.

As the market becomes more and more overbought and therefore overvalued, so will this stock, becoming more and more fairly valued.

Industrial goods as a whole has done well this year so far, just underperforming utilities and healthcare for this year according to stocktouch.

There are a lot of things about this stock which signifies that it is undervalued.

The PEG and PS ratio are under 1.

The company has outstanding growth and projected EPS while maintaining a relatively high return on equity. 

Debt to equity ratio is 0.1 and long term debt to equity ratio is 0.

I have a good feeling about my decision. Hopefully it will reward me well.

-Kevin 

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Summer Studies and Portfolio Performance

This is more of an off topic post, but I have some things I would like to share.

First off, I have a lot of things over the summer.

It's going to be hectic.

I don't know if I'll survive.

Now I'm not a little loser crybaby that laments all of my problems towards you, but this is what's going on.

I have to annotate a 600 page book thing for school next year. "A Boy's Life".

It's not like I don't want to do it, it's just that I honestly don't have the time, as I planned for this summer to be hardcore study time for finance from me.

I was actually planning to learn basic bookkeeping and accounting, in addition to my desire to cover by the end of month two of summer, a clear understanding of two books I recently bought. The Little Book of Valuation by Aswath Damodaran and The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, both quite long, were meant to be part of my studies.

But no worries, as contrary to my past performance behavior with my blog posts, I am actually going to do this.

I just have to get Bookkeeping for Dummies, and Quickbooks. (I already have Excel) to begin my project, while simultaneously reading those two books.

This is probably going to be at the very least troublesome.

Well, back to where the real information is at.

My portfolio has done quite well this month.

Performance of my portfolio compared to the DOW Jones Averages.
Overall Performance.

Yeah. It's safe to say I am not doing too badly. Also, to clear any negative sentiment to my "bragging" about my performance, I am not trying to flaunt my performance. I am going to need to use this information as proof for later on in my life. I don't know how I will use it, but I am sure it will be helpful.

SYNT, the stock I was discussing on my last post is still stagnating along.



There are many things that can happen, at least on a technical perspective. (You already know about my positive fundamental outlook on this company.)

1. It can create a channel upwards, which isn't uncommon.  As you can see, a channel/wedge is already beginning to form so I believe that it may just rally up and create such upward channel. It can either rally and meet resistance to drive it down to the bottom blue line above, or create an entirely new channel as shown with the black line. That would be great. This is a positive outcome.

2. It can fall down but meet support at the horizontal blue line at the 62 level. The stock could either go up or down from there, but I am sure that it will meet support there. If this happens, when the stock rebounds from the support but is still looking negative, I may exit at the end of the rebound. This is a neutral outcome.

3. The stock rallies down because of the double top formation, the negative volume today that somehow resulted in a positive change in price, or just negative market sentiment. This would be a negative outcome. I may exit in this too.

Only time can tell what my decision will be.

Although this is extremely off topic, I'm also possibly thinking of launching a real business sometime. It will have to be online, as there is no way I can have a brick-and-mortar business as a teen, but I don't know what I am really going to do.

Thanks for listening. This was a really odd post as I switched from topic to topic, but I want to communicate more with myself and my possible readers.

-Kevin

Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Monday, May 27, 2013

Problems With SYNT

Right now, I am in quite a bit of a situation with a stock that I am owning right now, SYNT.

The technicals say that the stock is about to undergo a turnaround in its upward trend, as the stock has gone through a double top pattern.


A double top means trouble, at least for short term performance.

The only hope I have in a technical point of view is if the stock meets support at the 62 level, which would then bring the stock into a sideways channel.

Who knows what that could bring. Channels usually create very large up or downtrends.

The fundamentals from finviz say good things about this stock.


What I like about it is how it is undervalued at this juncture of time, the PEG is 0.86.

The EPS growth for next year is lower than this year, so that would also be a consideration when purchasing this stock. The growth is "slowing down".

But what really really shines to me is the metrics for how well the management is performing regarding this stock.

They can still maintain a 27% Return on Assets, 32% Return on Equity, and 32% Return on Investment while maintaining a minimal debt to equity ratio.

Their business model is also quite profitable. The Operating and Profit Margin are 29% and 25%, which does quite well against their larger cap competitors such as IBM with 20% and 16%, and Xerox with 6% and roughly 5%.

It is safe to say that the management and the financial strength of this company is well off and will remain that way long into the future. The long term debt to equity ratio is 0.

Fundamentally, this stock is strong.

Technically, this stock is weak for the time being.

And it all comes down to me, the investor, the businessman, to decide on if I should follow what the chart says and sell, or listen to the actual company and hold it out.

Well, it is safe to say that I despise people who make investment decisions based on "technicals". They only last for a short time and at least for my point of view, it never works.

Screw technicals. This company is running well and I think a stupid chart pattern cannot dictate what the future prospects of this company will be.

So what do I choose to do with this stock?

I'm going to



















Honestly, I don't know why I even bothered to put that image inside of my blog. It fits the tone of my message, so why not?

Well, thanks for being with me while I decide on my future action with this stock, this post isn't just for people to hopefully learn from. This is for me, to think through my decisions better.

I appreciate you reading.



-Kevin

Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Sunday, May 12, 2013

What's going on?

Guess who's back. Back again.

So don't worry.

It will come, and I will be able to ale sure that I can recollect my thoughts on the best timely manner possible.

I also want to have a portfolio update to talk about.

I can't talk enough about how well my portfolio has been doing this past month.

Jeez. I have had over 70% returns with REGI. BBSI is also giving me 30% returns.

Coupled together with my other stock picks, which have been positive but not so stellar, I have around 30% returns for my portfolio so far.

That means that with my $15,000 worth of start up capital, I have had $5,000 dollars worth of gains.

My total portfolio's worth is $20,000.


It feels pretty good to be in a bull market. I think that I have been taking pretty good advantage of all of the positive "energy" that I think has taken ahold of the markets these days.

Reasons? The S&P500 is near or at all-time highs. U.S. stocks have outperformed many other markets that have been considered to be high growth this year.

Anyway, I'm at 30% returns and it hasn't even been one year. I'm probably around 8/12 of the way done.

There still may be room to grow even more.

-Kevin

P.S. I will post much more often now but it may come at odd mistakes and improper grammar as I am writing some of my articles on my iPod touch.

Metric Monday tomorrow.

BUFD55CWDGWK


Feel free to comment.

Follow Us on StockTwits


Sunday, April 14, 2013

P/E Ratio Explanation

Well, it's been a month since I last posted. I feel extremely bad about it, so in my opinion if you still want to read then you should have a good explanation about what a P/E ratio really is in my book.

To keep me posting, I will be starting...


I know it's cheesy, but it's mostly a way I can make sure that I stay consistent on this series I have created.

In my understanding, a P/E ratio is a valuation, to the simplest degree regarding a company compared to it's share price.

The formula is:


But really, you don't have to end up calculating it yourself. This is such a commonly used fundamental ratio for the valuation of stocks that you don't need to even worry about pulling out a calculator and doing this. Any financial website is bound to have a P/E Ratio about the share shown.

What I aim to do is to help you understand what it really means. 

We have to understand that the P/E Ratio is what it is because it is just how much of a multiple investors are willing to pay for the earnings per share of the stock. 

Some investors may be willing to pay a higher multiple for the earnings of a stock, which results in a higher P/E ratio, but why? Why should they be willing to pay, in a sense, extra?

We have to realize that investing is for the future, not for the present. 

People want to pay out higher P/E ratios than the average (compared to the S&P 500, Dow Sector Indexes, or S&P Sector ETFs for stocks in that sector) because they believe that the company's growth or future prospects is going to better than that average.

We can take a real life example for this:

LNKD (LinkedIn) P/E: 965.57
GOOG (Google) P/E: 24.33
AOL (AOL) P/E: 3.56

Internet Information Providers - Avg P/E: 25.40

We can see that investors believe that LinkedIn has a much higher P/E Ratio than average, which could either symbolize an overvaluation (if the investor decides so) or just hopes for better fortunes later on. 

What you should always remember is that although the P/E ratio of LNKD is much higher than the average for the Internet Information Providers, it is not necessarily overvalued.

Also, even though AOL's P/E ratio is much lower than the average P/E Ratio for the industry, it is not necessarily undervalued. Even Google may be over or undervalued depending on what the investor sees it's future fortunes as.

LNKD could just be a much better company, and or have higher estimated earnings later on (which is reflected by the Forward P/E Ratio)  and AOL could be a worse company, and or have lower estimated earnings for the next fiscal year.

The management for both companies can also be very different, LNKD's management could be outstanding, while AOL's management may be so-so. There is proof that AOL has failed many times before with previous flops such as the acquisition of Time Warner not bailing the failing company out of trouble. (Or so I've heard).

It could also be the fact that AOL has been around for a long time, while LinkedIn is a relatively new company. Most older companies get lower P/E ratios as investors normally think the growth has been all used up, and vice versa.

The thing is, there is no true way to tell if a company is over or under valued. You have to trust your own intuition, judgement, and understanding of companies.

For example: in theory, AOL is undervalued, and LNKD is overvalued, but even so, although the price of LNKD may seem too high, the general public may not see it and LNKD's price over 1 year may have a better performance than AOL's, as people may sell shares of AOL and move on to other companies. AOL could have an even lower price one year later and therefore become even more undervalued, so it is up to the investor to decide which of the two to pick, and when to enter.

Adding on with the fact that there are also other metrics an investor has to take into account before choosing a stock, valuation of stocks can be a very intricate and tiring process.

But if you even just look at the P/E ratio, then you already have an upper hand over the masses of amateur investors that don't even care about this very important metric. It is vital that you know what this means and how it can affect your investment decision.

If you get it right, or find a good understanding of how the P/E ratio works at different times and in different industries, you will have an invaluable advantage over other investors regarding stock picking.

I will be back some time explaining more metrics.


Portfolio Update:

The portfolio is doing absolutely marvelous. I am really proud of it, and the progress it has been making.

Well, the main account with my stocks: REGI, BBSI, HD, RGA, and SYNT have done super well. (I can't tell you the actual proportions of it).

I recently actually was faling behind the DOW but I recently caught up with it in my performance.



I have had 16% return so far in these 3 months so far, which is great!

Open-uri20120806-2-1cxaexb?1344292462
I really love this GIF.
-Kevin
 

Powered By Software Review