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Sunday, May 8, 2016

5/8/16 Update on Positions and Mini-Recap

The school year is almost about to end, which is nice. I feel like I've spent an exorbitant amount of my time studying this year, and I haven't really been able to devote as much time as I would have liked towards things that I would really have wanted to do. Granted, it's not like studying and schoolwork is a daily death sentence that I have to push through, but it gets very exhausting. The only reason why I am saying this, however, is because I feel like the volume and strategies of my trades during this year weren't filled with much excitement, to say the least.

The level of mental effort I could allocate towards trading wasn't really to the level where I generally want it to be, and a commonly accepted principle that I believe myself as well is that if the lifestyle one is leading is too busy for disciplined and relatively constant management of his or her portfolio, he or she would be much better off simply putting his or her money in an index fund or not invest it at all.

So for me, what I managed to get across was generally mid-length swing trades in companies that I believed had a desirable cushion in sheer fundamentals alone. Very few plays based off of technicals and chart patterns were executed in unstable companies with an iffy outlook.

This yielded in an okay way. It definitely doesn't compare some of the years I've had before, in which I made aggressive small-cap value plays like REGI. I didn't really dabble in companies with market caps of under 10 billion. But I also exposed myself to much less risk, especially given that I allocated a significant portion of my portfolio to market-mirroring ETF funds like SPY and XLP.

I don't anticipate this changing much for my next year as well. There will be even more challenges down the line that will likely have to warp my strategy into a more mid to long-term holding period minded.

Anyway, this is how my portfolio has fared recently.

SPY has been doing okay. It pushed up to a higher level since I bought it and hit resistance at 210. It's currently sitting on a 6% gain. I don't really know if it will find support in a moving average or if it will shoot down, but I honestly don't really care. This is for the med to long term and no stop losses will be found here.

XLP has been performing in a much more stable way over the entire 52 week period and I am happy with it. This is a good position for tempering market downturns, and given the overall fear that was present this past winter I like its consistency. But who cares about all of that? I'm in this for the mid to long term, I don't really see any other investments that I would like to be in that much more, so no stops will be found here.

This is because my overall outlook on the market is neutral positive for the following year, and I don't want to single out a certain company to invest in and expose myself to unnecessary risk.

My only truly speculative position is in SKX. But again, I have established already that this is going to be a mid to long-term hold as well. I have a positive outlook on its performance for next year and playing its earnings release turned out well for me. They beat expectations, setting me up with around a 6% pop after the first week of holding. But I've been staying hands off for a while now. It has gone back down somewhat, but in the long term of what I expect from this stock, the events that have happened over the past 2 weeks are still what I would consider stagnation.

Overall, I'm sitting on positions I'm happy with, and I am closing out the school year with a conservative allocation at least in my view.

As the summer comes around I might start selling off some of the funds from my ETF positions to trade more single companies. I might even do the same with SKX, but that will be a decision for later. If I decide to do it then, I will monitor their charts and sell at a period of relative strength and then look for prospective investments, investing when they are in periods of relative weakness.

I haven't decided on what I'm going to be also focusing on over the summer, but that decision will come later.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Two new entries in past post are closed. Going in on Skechers.

Exited out of the Sratasys position at around May 23rd. Caught a 4-5% pop up and was stopped out when it breached my trailing stop. Pretty good trade, I was hoping for better positive momentum.

Of course, not everything can go my way, but I think I set the trailing stop a bit too close as it did end up reaching 29 recently. However, given that it's been around a month now and the price movement has basically stagnated in the 23-29 range, I think it's fair to say that the opportunity cost of staying in the position would not have really been worth it.

The same thing happened with Barclays. I was exited out of the position at around May 22nd. Although I really would have liked to see stronger positive momentum in a longer term trade, again, the opportunity cost of holding onto it isn't really that satisfactory to me. Also, given that the reversal pattern I was hoping to happen isn't really panning out, as it is also stagnating at its current levels, I'm gonna move my money elsewhere. 

I still managed to also secure a relatively short term 5-6% pop from the trade, so I'm not too mad.

I'm still holding portions of SPY and XLP, which are going to be my benchmark market reflecting positions. They have done pretty well, the U.S. markets are again reaching stable footing and are trending upwards.

Tomorrow I will initiate a position on Skechers. Not only am I somewhat speculating on their earnings performance results on the 21st, which will be in 4 days at the time of this post, I really like their fundamental statistics and their growth projections.

Although I have my doubts about their ability to cement themselves as a market-leading athleticasual brand along the same level of prestige as NKE and LULU, they have gotten over some serious humps that have deterred many from investing into their business, like the cringe-worthy shape-ups that they used to market which would supposedly boost people's posture. (It only ended up yielding various lawsuits against them).

But in here, I like their relatively low PEG ratio, the strong EPS growth projected for next year, small Debt to Equity ratio, and moderate management effectiveness ratios. Margins are moderate as well.

Chart looks pretty decent for the next couple of quarters. My determination on the holding period I will pick will be determined by the market's reaction to their coming earnings release.

(click to enlarge)

It also doesn't take a genius to find that they are currently on track to boost their numbers and improve their business. Here's what the YOY performance of their statistics are.

(click to enlarge)

If you care about Analyst ratings, it recently was upgraded by Macquarie to a $45 target, a 55% possible upside, as well as "outperform".

The reasons they cited were

  • Growth domestically and internationally
  • Margins inching up
  • Scale bringing selling, general and administrative expense leverage
  • They said it was a "lean, mean, sneaker machine"
Now, their projections are nice, but I care about the numbers that get churned out. If the numbers over time don't fit the positive rhetoric of this post, I will drop it.

Probably not going to set a trailing stop for this one. I have conviction to make it at least a mid-term hold.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Stopped out of AMRI. Stopped out of CS. Two new entries.

This will be a short update post.

The above image is able to be clicked in case it's too hard to see.

Basically, I got stopped out of AMRI. It didn't really follow the inverse head and shoulders breakout pattern that I wanted it to. No big deal. Stop level at 14.50, took a relatively shallow loss of around 300 basis points. This wasn't a big position in the first place anyways.

Credit Suisse wasn't moving up enough in terms of momentum for my liking. I set a 200 basis point trailing stop at around 15.40, and it got hit. Walked away with around an 11% gain, if I remember correctly. Pretty good.

Opened up two more positions.

BCS, Barclays PLC. I'm hoping that its situation ends up in a way similar to Credit Suisse's.

Also, Stratasys. Hoping for a cup and handle.

Both positions have trailing stops, since I'm going mostly off of the chart.

Still in SPY and XLP.

Sunday, March 6, 2016

3/6/2016 Update

Apologize in advance again. I've made some trades and have failed to document their occurrence on the time of their happening.

I have been churning out some more articles on Seeking Alpha, but my post frequency here might lead many to believe that I have been not doing anything with my personal portfolio, which is simply not true.

Let's get caught up.

It's been about two weeks since I've reallocated and moved my positions into what they are currently. I entered all three of them on the 22nd of February. 

I have ~1/3 of my portfolio in SPY.

Feeling pretty good about it. I'm sitting on around a 3% gain on that. I noticed that the Fear and Greed Index during the time was relatively low, there was a bit of weakness that showed at the time, and I am generally quite the skeptic when it came to the market pundits worrying about recession and a downfall in the economy.

It has recently shot up in quite a short time. The Full Stochastics is at an overbought level, the RSI is nearing the overbought level. However, I do like the fast increase in the MACD; I think it will reach Nov levels after a while. It has also shot past its 50 day moving average, which is a good sign for its regaining of positive momentum.

I'm also sitting on a third of XLP, which is a SPDR consumer staples ETF.

Now, this is following the same pattern as SPY, and I am sitting on around a 4% gain on that. The reasons why I bought this are detailed in my Seeking Alpha article, where I went over why I thought Consumer Staple ETFS were attractive. 

Also not mentioned in the article, however, is that I want this portfolio to be not deviate too far from the S&P 500 this year. So currently, I have funds dedicated to an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, another set of funds for an ETF that tracks a section of the S&P 500 which I think will perform better than the overall index, as well as the last set of funds set towards individual stocks. I'll probably keep this up for a while. I want to play it conservatively and relatively simply.

(Disclaimer: I said that I was not holding XLP at the time of the publication of the article. More specifically said in the details of the agreement of publication: I was not allowed to purchase stocks I had written about within 72 hours of its publication if I said I did not own the investments I was talking about. I published that article on the 16th of February, and I entered this position on the 22nd of February.)

My best going trade right now is Credit Suisse. I'm sitting on around a 17% gain on that. I saw that it reached a second support level of consolidation, as well as a new low. After the support seemed to steady after its earnings release, and the MACD was set to converge in a bullish manner, I wanted to pull the trigger on it. Basically my thought process is that it is too big to fail, and that it has gotten recently really out of favor. It should heal over the coming year or so. Best outcome is that it'll end up like HPQ during 2012. However, I have no hesitation to lock in my profits if this thing goes really south. I'll probably cut some of the position anyways, as I found another trade I would like to open.

(Click to enlarge)

I've found a new trade in AMRI. I'll probably sell some of the SPY position and the CS position to get it in, but the reasons for why are detailed above.

Don't want to read it? The summary is that it has recently broke out of its channel in a positive manner, is about to develop a positive inverse head and shoulders pattern, and the moving averages are converging to show a trend reversal. The lower indicators haven't really shown me much, so I'm going mostly off of chart patterns and movement.

Of course, this is a trade based on technicals alone, so I'll have to set some support levels as an objective way to tell myself when the trade has gone south. 15.00 is the first support level I'll expect if it goes down and 14.75 is where I'll cut the position. Sadly, I have to be in school so I can't monitor the trade, so I might do a trailing stop, but this is still going to be a 2 week trade at least, so that likely won't be necessary. I'm hoping to see a positive trend develop.

That's everything for now. Again, classes are hard as usual, so it's hard for me to do this as much as I would like.


Sunday, November 22, 2015

From now on

As evidenced by my past entries, I will be doing writing in this blog with my own personal portfolio with my advanced analysis being put on Seeking Alpha as a supplement. I think that ends up evening out to a nice medium for me.

It would obviously get quite messy if I posted extra when I publish new Seeking Alpha articles. Then it would come out to posts on this blog only containing an update for a new article over there, which would just be inconvenient.

A new square will be on the right of the blog with a link to my Seeking Alpha profile with all of my post, and I may send out just a little notification in conjunction with a new post here. It will be unobtrusive, of course.

So back to business on the portfolio update.

I've slightly modified my portfolio from the past setup I had. I have slightly reallocated my assets to sell off GILD, and to include a new position I have opened up,

CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. daily Stock Chart

Cal-Maine Foods. This one has one of the best sets of fundamentals I have seen in quite a while, and I think the valuation will appreciate significantly within a notable time period.

Now, I'm being relatively ambiguous with naming the exact time period I will hold this position, as there is no exact way I can tell exactly when I will exit it.

Fundamentally wise, the attributes surrounding it which are notable deem it a strong long term pick. It has a pretty fantastic set of stats, some of the most notable being:

  • 9.94x P/E Ratio, and 8.25x Forward P/E, deeming it relatively undervalued when compared to the broader market, which has an average P/E of about 15x. Nonetheless, the fact that the Forward P/E is still lower than the current P/E makes known that the stock is still projected to grow in earnings from this year to the next.
  • 0.44x Price to Earnings Growth Ratio. This makes known that the stock is undervalued in comparison to its earnings growth.
  • Low debt to equity ratio levels, at 0.05 current and 0.04 long term.
  • 6.92% dividend payout ratio. The dividend net is strong with this stock.
  • Very good management effectiveness stats. 29.2% Return on Assets, 39.7% Return on Equity, 20.0% Return on Investment. This means that management is able to maximize efficiency out of this company's enterprise operations.
  • A 49.09% short float. This is huge. I have, really, no idea why the stock is being shorted so much. But the fact that the stock is remaining stable in price action, complimented with the nice fundamentals deems a short squeeze very likely.
Here's some TA for you, on the point of why in the short term, in a technical view, this is still a decent pick as well.

So there I have it. I feel pretty good about this pick.

I am holding shares in CALM, GM, and VBR right now.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Post about CALM

I got another article on Seeking Alpha up.

The link is here.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Supplementary Writing


Sorry for the post on such short notice. I will review my portfolio positions soon.

Just wanted to post that I have begun supplementing this blog with writing articles for Seeking Alpha.

I recently got my article on JetBlue Airways up, the link to read it is here if you want to check it out.

My overall profile is here.

Nonetheless, I will continue to post on this blog, so don't worry.

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