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Sunday, April 17, 2016

Two new entries in past post are closed. Going in on Skechers.

Exited out of the Sratasys position at around May 23rd. Caught a 4-5% pop up and was stopped out when it breached my trailing stop. Pretty good trade, I was hoping for better positive momentum.

Of course, not everything can go my way, but I think I set the trailing stop a bit too close as it did end up reaching 29 recently. However, given that it's been around a month now and the price movement has basically stagnated in the 23-29 range, I think it's fair to say that the opportunity cost of staying in the position would not have really been worth it.


The same thing happened with Barclays. I was exited out of the position at around May 22nd. Although I really would have liked to see stronger positive momentum in a longer term trade, again, the opportunity cost of holding onto it isn't really that satisfactory to me. Also, given that the reversal pattern I was hoping to happen isn't really panning out, as it is also stagnating at its current levels, I'm gonna move my money elsewhere. 

I still managed to also secure a relatively short term 5-6% pop from the trade, so I'm not too mad.


I'm still holding portions of SPY and XLP, which are going to be my benchmark market reflecting positions. They have done pretty well, the U.S. markets are again reaching stable footing and are trending upwards.

Tomorrow I will initiate a position on Skechers. Not only am I somewhat speculating on their earnings performance results on the 21st, which will be in 4 days at the time of this post, I really like their fundamental statistics and their growth projections.

Although I have my doubts about their ability to cement themselves as a market-leading athleticasual brand along the same level of prestige as NKE and LULU, they have gotten over some serious humps that have deterred many from investing into their business, like the cringe-worthy shape-ups that they used to market which would supposedly boost people's posture. (It only ended up yielding various lawsuits against them).


But in here, I like their relatively low PEG ratio, the strong EPS growth projected for next year, small Debt to Equity ratio, and moderate management effectiveness ratios. Margins are moderate as well.

Chart looks pretty decent for the next couple of quarters. My determination on the holding period I will pick will be determined by the market's reaction to their coming earnings release.

(click to enlarge)


It also doesn't take a genius to find that they are currently on track to boost their numbers and improve their business. Here's what the YOY performance of their statistics are.

(click to enlarge)



If you care about Analyst ratings, it recently was upgraded by Macquarie to a $45 target, a 55% possible upside, as well as "outperform".

The reasons they cited were

  • Growth domestically and internationally
  • Margins inching up
  • Scale bringing selling, general and administrative expense leverage
  • They said it was a "lean, mean, sneaker machine"
Now, their projections are nice, but I care about the numbers that get churned out. If the numbers over time don't fit the positive rhetoric of this post, I will drop it.


Probably not going to set a trailing stop for this one. I have conviction to make it at least a mid-term hold.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Stopped out of AMRI. Stopped out of CS. Two new entries.

This will be a short update post.


The above image is able to be clicked in case it's too hard to see.

Basically, I got stopped out of AMRI. It didn't really follow the inverse head and shoulders breakout pattern that I wanted it to. No big deal. Stop level at 14.50, took a relatively shallow loss of around 300 basis points. This wasn't a big position in the first place anyways.


Credit Suisse wasn't moving up enough in terms of momentum for my liking. I set a 200 basis point trailing stop at around 15.40, and it got hit. Walked away with around an 11% gain, if I remember correctly. Pretty good.

Opened up two more positions.

BCS, Barclays PLC. I'm hoping that its situation ends up in a way similar to Credit Suisse's.



Also, Stratasys. Hoping for a cup and handle.


Both positions have trailing stops, since I'm going mostly off of the chart.

Still in SPY and XLP.

Sunday, March 6, 2016

3/6/2016 Update

Apologize in advance again. I've made some trades and have failed to document their occurrence on the time of their happening.

I have been churning out some more articles on Seeking Alpha, but my post frequency here might lead many to believe that I have been not doing anything with my personal portfolio, which is simply not true.

Let's get caught up.

It's been about two weeks since I've reallocated and moved my positions into what they are currently. I entered all three of them on the 22nd of February. 

I have ~1/3 of my portfolio in SPY.


Feeling pretty good about it. I'm sitting on around a 3% gain on that. I noticed that the Fear and Greed Index during the time was relatively low, there was a bit of weakness that showed at the time, and I am generally quite the skeptic when it came to the market pundits worrying about recession and a downfall in the economy.

It has recently shot up in quite a short time. The Full Stochastics is at an overbought level, the RSI is nearing the overbought level. However, I do like the fast increase in the MACD; I think it will reach Nov levels after a while. It has also shot past its 50 day moving average, which is a good sign for its regaining of positive momentum.

I'm also sitting on a third of XLP, which is a SPDR consumer staples ETF.


Now, this is following the same pattern as SPY, and I am sitting on around a 4% gain on that. The reasons why I bought this are detailed in my Seeking Alpha article, where I went over why I thought Consumer Staple ETFS were attractive. 

Also not mentioned in the article, however, is that I want this portfolio to be not deviate too far from the S&P 500 this year. So currently, I have funds dedicated to an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, another set of funds for an ETF that tracks a section of the S&P 500 which I think will perform better than the overall index, as well as the last set of funds set towards individual stocks. I'll probably keep this up for a while. I want to play it conservatively and relatively simply.

(Disclaimer: I said that I was not holding XLP at the time of the publication of the article. More specifically said in the details of the agreement of publication: I was not allowed to purchase stocks I had written about within 72 hours of its publication if I said I did not own the investments I was talking about. I published that article on the 16th of February, and I entered this position on the 22nd of February.)


My best going trade right now is Credit Suisse. I'm sitting on around a 17% gain on that. I saw that it reached a second support level of consolidation, as well as a new low. After the support seemed to steady after its earnings release, and the MACD was set to converge in a bullish manner, I wanted to pull the trigger on it. Basically my thought process is that it is too big to fail, and that it has gotten recently really out of favor. It should heal over the coming year or so. Best outcome is that it'll end up like HPQ during 2012. However, I have no hesitation to lock in my profits if this thing goes really south. I'll probably cut some of the position anyways, as I found another trade I would like to open.

(Click to enlarge)


I've found a new trade in AMRI. I'll probably sell some of the SPY position and the CS position to get it in, but the reasons for why are detailed above.

Don't want to read it? The summary is that it has recently broke out of its channel in a positive manner, is about to develop a positive inverse head and shoulders pattern, and the moving averages are converging to show a trend reversal. The lower indicators haven't really shown me much, so I'm going mostly off of chart patterns and movement.

Of course, this is a trade based on technicals alone, so I'll have to set some support levels as an objective way to tell myself when the trade has gone south. 15.00 is the first support level I'll expect if it goes down and 14.75 is where I'll cut the position. Sadly, I have to be in school so I can't monitor the trade, so I might do a trailing stop, but this is still going to be a 2 week trade at least, so that likely won't be necessary. I'm hoping to see a positive trend develop.

That's everything for now. Again, classes are hard as usual, so it's hard for me to do this as much as I would like.

Kevin

Sunday, November 22, 2015

From now on

As evidenced by my past entries, I will be doing writing in this blog with my own personal portfolio with my advanced analysis being put on Seeking Alpha as a supplement. I think that ends up evening out to a nice medium for me.

It would obviously get quite messy if I posted extra when I publish new Seeking Alpha articles. Then it would come out to posts on this blog only containing an update for a new article over there, which would just be inconvenient.

A new square will be on the right of the blog with a link to my Seeking Alpha profile with all of my post, and I may send out just a little notification in conjunction with a new post here. It will be unobtrusive, of course.

So back to business on the portfolio update.

I've slightly modified my portfolio from the past setup I had. I have slightly reallocated my assets to sell off GILD, and to include a new position I have opened up,

CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. daily Stock Chart

Cal-Maine Foods. This one has one of the best sets of fundamentals I have seen in quite a while, and I think the valuation will appreciate significantly within a notable time period.

Now, I'm being relatively ambiguous with naming the exact time period I will hold this position, as there is no exact way I can tell exactly when I will exit it.

Fundamentally wise, the attributes surrounding it which are notable deem it a strong long term pick. It has a pretty fantastic set of stats, some of the most notable being:

  • 9.94x P/E Ratio, and 8.25x Forward P/E, deeming it relatively undervalued when compared to the broader market, which has an average P/E of about 15x. Nonetheless, the fact that the Forward P/E is still lower than the current P/E makes known that the stock is still projected to grow in earnings from this year to the next.
  • 0.44x Price to Earnings Growth Ratio. This makes known that the stock is undervalued in comparison to its earnings growth.
  • Low debt to equity ratio levels, at 0.05 current and 0.04 long term.
  • 6.92% dividend payout ratio. The dividend net is strong with this stock.
  • Very good management effectiveness stats. 29.2% Return on Assets, 39.7% Return on Equity, 20.0% Return on Investment. This means that management is able to maximize efficiency out of this company's enterprise operations.
  • A 49.09% short float. This is huge. I have, really, no idea why the stock is being shorted so much. But the fact that the stock is remaining stable in price action, complimented with the nice fundamentals deems a short squeeze very likely.
Here's some TA for you, on the point of why in the short term, in a technical view, this is still a decent pick as well.



So there I have it. I feel pretty good about this pick.

I am holding shares in CALM, GM, and VBR right now.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Post about CALM

I got another article on Seeking Alpha up.

The link is here.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Supplementary Writing

Hey.

Sorry for the post on such short notice. I will review my portfolio positions soon.

Just wanted to post that I have begun supplementing this blog with writing articles for Seeking Alpha.

I recently got my article on JetBlue Airways up, the link to read it is here if you want to check it out.

My overall profile is here.

Nonetheless, I will continue to post on this blog, so don't worry.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

It's been a while.

I have neglected this for far too long now. It's been what, a month and a half since my last post?

It's not like I've been sitting around all this time remaining idle, however. I've not neglected my investing activities. 

So this is just going to be a little rundown of what has happened so far since May 27th, my last entry, in chronological order.
  1. The simulator has died already. It's somewhat depressing, and I guess it speaks to the consistency needed to perform well or something. I was far and away in first due to my speculative bets with like a 15% return while the next guy had a meager 4%, and I was getting really bored. I checked my competition's portfolios and some of them were doing really boring stuff, like investing maybe 5% of their entire portfolio in Apple or something. So their portfolios each day would fluctuate under a tenth of a percent each day, which I guess is a safe way of going about it, but it definitely translates into an uneventful experience. I already stopped doing it for a while; I'm now just doing my own thing.
  2. I got the internship. It's been pretty awesome so far. I'm halfway through it, but it has been thoroughly enjoyable. Nothing really much else to say about it, really. It's been much better than what the stereotypical internship experience would have one assume.
  3. Modified my portfolio. That's what I'm going to talk about most.
I have three holdings. 50% of it is in VBR, the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF. Holding period - indefinite unless significantly overvalued or breaches 10% trailing stop

VBR  Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF daily Stock Chart

This is because out of the following stock cap categories and trading philosophies: Large-Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid-Cap Growth, Mid-Cap Value, Small-Cap Growth, and Small-Cap Value, Small-Cap Value funds outperform all of the rest over a longer period of time.

You can read more about the back testing of this claim here.

I also want some more exposure to small caps than what I have right now, as my other two holdings are large cap.

So here are my two other holdings:

GILD, holding period - indefinite unless significantly overvalued or breaches 10% trailing stop

GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. daily Stock Chart

Some financial highlights I have to mention that are pretty important:

Good:
  • Low PE and FWD PE, at 13.44, and 10.69, respectively.
  • 0.65 PEG Ratio
  • Pays out a dividend. Indicative of steady financial management and long-term cash flow management
  • I predict steady and solid earnings growth as the time goes on
  • 42.7% Return on Assets, 91.3% Return on Equity, 44.8% Return on Investment
  • High target price, generally high analyst outlook
Bad:
  • 10.24 PB Ratio.
  • Somewhat high debt to equity levels, around 0.7
But nonetheless, I think the pros seriously outweigh the cons here. This isn't necessarily an undervalued stock, but it is undervalued in terms of its future growth, at least in my opinion.

Plus, the quarter's earnings will be out this Wednesday, so this is also somewhat of a speculative play. 

I am also holding GM, holding period - indefinite unless significantly overvalued or breaches 10% trailing stop

GM General Motors Company daily Stock Chart

Another large cap, so it's going to be relatively more stable.

Financial highlights:

Good:
  • Low PE and FWD PE, at 14.26, and 6.07, respectively.
  • 0.77 PEG Ratio
  • Pays out a dividend. This one's pretty high, at 4.7% Indicative of steady financial management and long-term cash flow management.
  • PB ratio not too high, at 1.36
  • High target price
  • Relative Strength Index indicator pretty low, at 26.59 - this means recent price action movements has pushed the stock to a point where it is considered "oversold" at least in a short term perspective.

Bad:
  • ROA, ROE, and ROI could be better. They are positive, but generally not to at the level I normally like.
  • High debt to equity levels, around 1.15
  • American auto market is known to be a bit iffy in terms of maintaining a strong presence in the auto market.
This is more of a long-term value play, so to speak. I don't expect it to rocket higher in price but I think a company this large has been hammered a bit too hard recently.

That's it.

Will post again soon. Maybe I'll look specifically into a company or talk about an important tip or issue at hand. 

Kevin
 

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